KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

88%

88%

81%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 88.0¢Risks 44.00u

WN2NO 12.0¢Risks 6.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.00u · WN2 −6.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	11.3%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	50.7%	0.1%	9.6%	—	68.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.5%	94.3%	—	72.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	90.0%	25.8%	89.7%	—	72.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	91.9%	37.5%	69.2%	—	80.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	97.8%	66.2%	95.9%	—	83.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	94.8%	73.1%	95.7%	—	84.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	98.7%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	89.8%	82.2%	90.6%	—	79.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	86.8%	85.2%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	87.9%	81.7%	93.8%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	81.7%	78.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	78.8%	78.8%	88.7%	—	68.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	79.5%	75.5%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.5%	74.5%	88.6%	0.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	72.4%	82.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	66.9%	80.1%	89.5%	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	59.5%	80.1%	88.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	57.4%	81.8%	88.8%	19.1%	71.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	52.6%	85.7%	91.3%	—	74.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	50.0%	93.0%	88.7%	14.9%	72.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	62.3%	94.6%	83.6%	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	82.8%	96.3%	82.8%	20.2%	73.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	82.8%	96.3%	75.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	79.7%	96.9%	66.8%	17.1%	68.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	91.4%	97.4%	80.8%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	66.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	65.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	63.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	60.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	58.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗