KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

69%

64%

63%

18%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

ICONNO 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.10u · ICON −56.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	7.7%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	6.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	36.9%	0.0%	4.9%	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.1%	88.7%	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	81.6%	15.1%	81.1%	—	58.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	84.1%	23.6%	54.0%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	94.4%	50.0%	90.6%	—	71.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	61.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	88.2%	57.0%	89.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	96.2%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	79.1%	67.8%	80.4%	—	64.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	75.3%	66.1%	85.3%	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	65.6%	60.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	61.2%	61.2%	75.7%	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	61.5%	56.3%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	54.4%	54.4%	74.5%	0.0%	43.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	51.1%	64.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	44.2%	60.4%	74.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	35.9%	59.5%	72.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	33.1%	61.1%	72.4%	6.7%	47.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	28.0%	66.3%	76.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	25.1%	79.0%	70.5%	4.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	35.0%	81.8%	61.0%	—	48.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	58.6%	85.4%	58.6%	5.9%	45.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	57.5%	84.7%	47.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	51.6%	85.8%	36.1%	4.1%	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	70.5%	86.9%	51.6%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	60.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	60.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	59.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	18%	55.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗