KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

60%

53%

40%

40%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

WN2NO 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.15u · WN2 −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	30.5%	0.0%	3.3%	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	84.8%	—	51.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	76.1%	11.0%	75.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	78.8%	17.9%	46.0%	—	60.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	91.6%	41.7%	86.7%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	52.6%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	83.3%	48.2%	85.4%	—	64.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	94.0%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	71.8%	59.1%	73.4%	—	55.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	65.7%	63.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	67.0%	56.8%	79.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	56.0%	51.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	51.0%	51.0%	67.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	51.1%	45.8%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	43.5%	43.5%	64.9%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	40.0%	53.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	33.1%	48.8%	64.8%	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	25.3%	47.6%	61.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	22.7%	48.8%	61.1%	3.5%	35.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	18.2%	53.9%	65.1%	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	15.7%	68.1%	58.0%	2.0%	34.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	23.2%	71.2%	47.2%	—	35.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.2%	75.5%	44.2%	2.7%	31.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	42.5%	74.0%	32.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	36.1%	75.0%	22.6%	1.6%	23.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	54.9%	75.9%	35.5%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	60.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	59.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	58.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗