KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

16%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.1¢Risks 31.10u

EPSNO 68.9¢Risks 68.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.90u · EPS −68.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	43.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	42.3%	75.9%	2.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	68.3%	0.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	40.9%	23.9%	1.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	51.6%	20.6%	5.9%	—	10.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	13.4%	6.9%	1.5%	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	13.2%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	17.2%	3.2%	1.9%	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	16.6%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	23.7%	1.4%	1.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	37.0%	1.0%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	47.1%	1.7%	2.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	39.1%	2.0%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	34.0%	2.1%	1.5%	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	18.3%	1.3%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	15.5%	0.5%	0.6%	76.2%	12.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	14.8%	0.4%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	14.7%	0.3%	0.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	12.6%	0.2%	0.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	12.4%	0.1%	0.2%	70.2%	6.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	12.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	13.4%	0.0%	0.2%	73.9%	5.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	7.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	11.5%	0.0%	0.1%	78.8%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	11.2%	0.0%	1.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.4%	0.0%	3.7%	51.6%	11.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	31.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	35.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	36.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	37.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	36.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	36.7°F	1.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	46.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗