KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

16%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.1¢Risks 31.10u

EPSNO 68.9¢Risks 68.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.90u · EPS −68.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:08+00:00	69.6%	0.6%	23.9%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	69.6%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	69.6%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	69.6%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	24.0%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	27.1%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	27.1%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	67.8%	0.8%	27.1%	22.4%	47.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	27.1%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	27.1%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	27.1%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	27.1%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	27.1%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	60.6%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	21.8%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	22.5%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	22.5%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	56.8%	0.8%	22.5%	24.2%	34.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	22.5%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	22.5%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	22.5%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	22.5%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	22.5%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	59.6%	0.8%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	59.6%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	59.6%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	17.2%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	15.9%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	15.9%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	15.9%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	54.3%	0.3%	15.9%	15.9%	15.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.9%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.9%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.9%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.9%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	61.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	60.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	60.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	60.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	60.7%	0.3%	15.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	61.9%	0.3%	16.5%	13.1%	13.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	61.9%	0.3%	16.5%	13.1%	13.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	61.9%	0.3%	16.5%	13.1%	13.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	61.9%	0.3%	16.5%	13.1%	13.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	31.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	35.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	36.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	37.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	36.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	36.7°F	1.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	46.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗