KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

48%

46%

23%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	2.3%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	74.8%	47.9%	2.1%	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	62.9%	67.0%	53.6%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	89.3%	77.2%	78.9%	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	58.7%	47.6%	70.5%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	83.8%	60.7%	61.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	31.1%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	70.1%	77.9%	79.8%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	55.4%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	55.5%	82.2%	57.3%	—	45.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	60.3%	78.3%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	34.8%	77.5%	44.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	41.1%	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	34.0%	76.5%	36.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	23.6%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	22.1%	71.8%	33.1%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	19.0%	73.3%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	81.0%	28.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	16.7%	82.5%	31.4%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	40.1%	88.8%	35.4%	10.6%	36.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	41.0%	91.3%	38.5%	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	33.1%	90.5%	25.1%	12.7%	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	54.2%	91.9%	27.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	69.5%	96.0%	44.2%	23.4%	44.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	72.8%	92.0%	26.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	73.7%	95.2%	37.6%	39.1%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	96.3%	98.3%	80.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗