KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

44%

27%

26%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

ICONNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.50u · ICON −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	62.4%	34.3%	0.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	48.5%	52.9%	39.2%	—	47.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	80.5%	64.2%	66.3%	—	56.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	42.9%	32.3%	55.6%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	71.4%	44.2%	45.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	17.8%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	53.5%	62.9%	65.4%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	37.6%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	67.8%	39.1%	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	41.5%	62.1%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	19.0%	60.6%	26.3%	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	23.4%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	17.6%	58.2%	19.7%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	10.6%	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	9.4%	51.1%	16.2%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	7.5%	52.2%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	1.3%	61.5%	12.7%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	5.8%	63.0%	13.9%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	19.1%	72.4%	15.9%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	19.1%	76.2%	17.4%	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	13.4%	73.9%	8.9%	3.5%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	27.6%	75.8%	9.8%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	41.4%	84.6%	19.1%	7.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	44.0%	74.0%	8.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	43.7%	80.8%	13.4%	14.2%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	83.0%	90.1%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	65.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗