KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

44%

27%

26%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

ICONNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.50u · ICON −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:15+00:00	69.4%	44.8%	42.2%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	69.4%	43.8%	42.2%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	69.4%	43.7%	42.2%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	69.4%	43.7%	44.8%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	69.4%	43.7%	44.8%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	69.4%	43.7%	44.8%	80.3%	68.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	44.8%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	44.8%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	44.8%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	44.8%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	54.4%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	54.4%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	66.8%	43.7%	54.4%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	66.8%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:56+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	54.4%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	52.6%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	52.6%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	71.4%	47.4%	52.6%	63.1%	87.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	59.7%	47.4%	52.6%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	59.7%	47.4%	52.6%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	59.7%	47.4%	52.6%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	59.7%	47.4%	52.6%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	59.7%	47.4%	52.6%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	59.7%	70.1%	53.9%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	59.7%	70.1%	53.9%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	59.7%	70.1%	53.9%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	60.4%	70.1%	53.9%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	60.4%	70.1%	53.9%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	55.3%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	55.3%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	55.3%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	52.1%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	52.1%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	66.0%	48.8%	52.1%	33.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	66.8%	48.8%	52.1%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	66.8%	48.8%	52.1%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	66.8%	48.8%	52.1%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	66.8%	48.8%	52.1%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	66.8%	48.8%	52.1%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	53.2%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	58.5%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	58.5%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	68.4%	43.2%	58.5%	37.4%	52.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	68.8%	43.2%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	68.8%	35.7%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	68.8%	35.7%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	66.3%	35.7%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	66.3%	35.8%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	58.2%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	53.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	53.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	53.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	66.3%	36.1%	53.5%	31.1%	23.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	63.7%	36.1%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	63.7%	36.1%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	63.7%	36.1%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	63.7%	36.1%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	63.7%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	63.7%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	63.7%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:09+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	53.5%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	61.9%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	57.8%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	57.8%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	57.8%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	57.8%	30.2%	58.2%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	57.8%	28.9%	51.3%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	57.8%	28.9%	51.3%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	57.8%	28.9%	51.3%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	57.8%	28.9%	51.3%	28.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	58.8%	28.9%	51.3%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	58.8%	29.5%	51.3%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	58.8%	29.4%	51.3%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	58.8%	29.4%	51.3%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	58.8%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	58.8%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	58.8%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	7.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	62.5%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	1.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	62.5%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	1.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	62.5%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	1.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	62.5%	29.4%	53.9%	28.7%	1.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	62.5%	29.4%	53.9%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	62.5%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	62.5%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	62.5%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	64.4%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	64.4%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	64.4%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	64.4%	23.9%	55.1%	33.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:41+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	60.8%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	60.8%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	60.8%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	52.7%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	52.7%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	61.0%	28.6%	52.7%	32.4%	12.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	58.0%	28.6%	52.7%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	58.0%	28.6%	52.7%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	58.0%	28.6%	52.7%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	58.0%	28.6%	52.7%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	58.0%	28.6%	52.7%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	58.0%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	58.0%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	58.0%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	69.4%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	69.4%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	69.4%	26.7%	44.5%	25.9%	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	65.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗