KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

49%

34%

27%

20%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.40u

HRESNO 64.6¢Risks 64.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.60u · HRES −64.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	48.6%	22.4%	0.3%	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	34.3%	38.5%	26.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	68.4%	49.2%	51.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.1%	19.5%	39.7%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	55.8%	28.6%	29.3%	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	8.8%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	36.3%	45.6%	48.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	22.2%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	21.6%	50.0%	23.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	24.6%	43.4%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	8.6%	41.3%	13.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	11.0%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	7.4%	37.8%	8.6%	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	3.8%	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	3.1%	30.1%	6.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	2.2%	30.5%	0.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.2%	38.5%	4.2%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	39.3%	4.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	6.7%	48.8%	5.2%	0.6%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.4%	52.6%	5.6%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.7%	48.7%	2.2%	0.6%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	9.8%	50.0%	2.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	17.2%	61.4%	5.5%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	18.1%	45.5%	1.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	17.1%	53.2%	2.9%	3.1%	4.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	67.6%	21.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	67.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	65.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗