KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

49%

34%

27%

20%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.40u

HRESNO 64.6¢Risks 64.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.60u · HRES −64.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:29+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	34.9%	19.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	34.9%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	44.4%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	42.8%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	71.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	42.8%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	71.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	42.8%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	71.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	42.8%	47.8%	39.4%	19.7%	71.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	42.8%	48.9%	37.6%	23.7%	71.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	42.8%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	42.8%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:30+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	46.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	71.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	56.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	56.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	56.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	56.0%	48.9%	37.6%	23.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:11+00:00	56.0%	48.9%	37.6%	20.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	56.0%	26.8%	34.3%	20.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	56.0%	26.8%	34.3%	20.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	56.0%	26.8%	34.3%	20.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	49.1%	26.8%	34.3%	20.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	49.1%	26.8%	34.3%	20.0%	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	67.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	65.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗