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KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
15%
ICON
8%
WN2
5%
HRES
4%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.1¢Risks 4.07u
VS
EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.92u · EPS −45.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:001.8%————1.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.8%————1.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0013.4%————2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0042.6%————2.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:004.8%————3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.7%————2.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.8%————2.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:001.6%————2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————2.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————4.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——5.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:003.0%—0.0%——11.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.6%—0.0%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.8%—0.0%——6.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.4%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.6%—0.0%——11.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.6%—2.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:005.1%18.0%5.1%0.0%—10.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.5%—20.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:001.1%9.3%11.3%5.9%—8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.9%—24.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.8%31.6%16.4%17.9%—12.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.9%—17.4%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%5.7%3.1%10.4%—6.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.7%—7.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.2%18.4%5.3%5.6%—2.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.5%0.8%7.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.1%7.3%11.3%12.7%—1.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.5%2.9%11.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.3%2.6%12.4%2.9%—1.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.3%3.0%8.8%——0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.9%0.5%7.5%1.0%—0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.4%0.7%7.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.3%5.5%0.4%—0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%3.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%2.9%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%2.7%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%4.0%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%3.7%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%5.5%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%6.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%4.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%6.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%2.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%2.6%5.3%0.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single15%67.7°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON8%65.8°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%66.3°F3.7°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES4%63.9°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
National Blend3%66.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%64.9°F3.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗