KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.1¢Risks 4.07u

EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.92u · EPS −45.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00	5.3%	11.0%	11.4%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	5.3%	11.0%	11.4%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	5.3%	11.0%	11.4%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	5.3%	11.0%	11.4%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00	5.3%	11.0%	11.4%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:00	5.3%	7.5%	4.2%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	5.3%	7.5%	4.2%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	5.3%	7.5%	4.2%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	4.2%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	4.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	4.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	4.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	4.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	5.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	5.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	21.0%	7.5%	5.3%	40.6%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	5.3%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	5.3%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	5.3%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	5.3%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	5.3%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	16.7%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	16.7%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	16.7%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	5.5%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	3.9%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	3.9%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	18.1%	9.5%	3.9%	35.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	3.9%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	3.9%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	3.9%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	3.9%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	3.9%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	5.0%	9.5%	4.1%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	5.0%	4.7%	4.1%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	5.0%	4.7%	4.1%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	20.9%	4.7%	4.1%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	20.9%	4.9%	4.2%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:16+00:00	20.9%	4.9%	4.2%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	20.9%	4.4%	4.2%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.2%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.8%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.8%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.8%	41.6%	29.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	4.8%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	4.8%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	4.8%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	4.8%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	18.8%	4.1%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:56+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.7%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.1%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.1%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	22.6%	5.3%	7.1%	23.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	11.9%	5.3%	7.1%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	11.9%	5.3%	7.1%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	11.9%	5.3%	7.1%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	11.9%	5.3%	7.1%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	11.9%	5.3%	7.1%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	11.9%	7.8%	5.3%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	11.9%	7.8%	5.3%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	11.9%	7.8%	5.3%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	12.5%	7.8%	5.4%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	12.5%	7.8%	5.4%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:30+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	5.4%	4.2%	18.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	5.4%	4.4%	18.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	18.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	18.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	12.5%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	18.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	11.7%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	11.7%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	11.7%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	11.7%	7.4%	6.9%	4.4%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	11.7%	7.8%	6.3%	5.8%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	11.7%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	11.7%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:30+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	13.3%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	17.5%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	15.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	17.5%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	15.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	17.5%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	15.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	17.5%	7.8%	6.3%	5.5%	15.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:11+00:00	17.5%	7.8%	6.3%	3.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	17.5%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	17.5%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	17.5%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	4.0%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	3.4%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	3.4%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	13.4%	1.8%	3.4%	3.3%	15.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	13.9%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	13.9%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	13.9%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	3.6%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	4.8%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	4.8%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	14.8%	1.5%	4.8%	4.3%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	67.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	65.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗