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KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
90%
EPS
76%
HRES
67%
ICON
48%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 69.7¢Risks 69.65u
VS
ICONNO 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.35u · ICON −30.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00IFS HRES: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 11:0210-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:0090.4%72.5%90.2%72.1%40.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:0090.4%72.5%92.7%72.1%40.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:0090.4%72.5%92.7%72.1%40.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:0090.4%72.5%92.7%72.1%40.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:0090.4%72.5%92.7%72.1%40.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:0091.5%72.5%92.7%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0091.5%72.5%92.7%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0091.5%72.5%92.7%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0091.5%72.5%92.7%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:0091.5%72.5%92.7%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:0091.5%76.0%92.1%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:0091.5%76.0%92.1%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:0091.5%76.0%92.1%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:0085.7%75.6%92.1%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:0085.7%75.6%92.1%74.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:0089.8%76.0%86.4%66.7%47.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0089.8%76.0%91.5%66.7%47.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0089.8%76.0%91.5%66.7%47.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0089.8%76.0%91.5%66.7%47.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%65.5°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single90%66.5°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble76%64.0°F3.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES67%63.1°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%62.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend59%62.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON48%61.3°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗