KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

76%

67%

48%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.7¢Risks 69.65u

ICONNO 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.35u · ICON −30.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	59.7%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	6.4%	87.9%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	94.6%	77.0%	21.4%	—	82.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	93.8%	78.0%	50.0%	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	56.1%	69.1%	54.6%	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	71.2%	66.3%	70.5%	—	64.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	50.8%	72.1%	66.2%	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	26.7%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	62.1%	69.3%	49.1%	—	55.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	40.2%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	28.9%	79.1%	60.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	48.1%	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	19.0%	80.3%	56.8%	—	51.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	39.1%	89.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	26.8%	90.6%	62.2%	—	53.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	37.5%	91.2%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	55.5%	92.7%	63.9%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	51.1%	91.3%	0.9%	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	43.0%	92.8%	47.7%	51.2%	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	60.7%	93.4%	48.8%	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	66.9%	94.1%	48.8%	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	68.7%	88.5%	44.9%	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	64.4%	88.0%	40.7%	42.0%	52.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	82.7%	91.3%	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	91.1%	93.7%	54.3%	61.4%	72.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	88.8%	94.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗