KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

56%

46%

27%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.25u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.75u · ICON −47.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	46.8%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	3.1%	79.7%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	89.5%	65.1%	12.6%	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	88.0%	65.7%	35.7%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	40.9%	54.6%	39.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	56.4%	50.8%	55.6%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	34.5%	56.6%	50.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	14.7%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	44.8%	52.6%	32.2%	—	37.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	24.2%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	15.4%	63.6%	41.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	30.1%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	8.6%	64.3%	37.6%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	21.9%	77.4%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	12.8%	78.8%	41.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	19.8%	79.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	34.1%	81.7%	42.4%	0.0%	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	29.6%	78.6%	0.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	22.4%	81.0%	26.0%	28.9%	30.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.0%	81.7%	26.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	42.6%	82.6%	25.6%	—	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	43.6%	70.9%	21.9%	—	28.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	38.1%	69.3%	18.2%	19.1%	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	59.7%	74.7%	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	73.2%	78.8%	26.8%	33.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	64.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗