KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

45%

30%

24%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.95u · ICON −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	34.2%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	68.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	81.6%	51.4%	6.7%	—	59.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	79.0%	51.5%	23.2%	—	51.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	27.0%	39.4%	25.8%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	40.5%	35.2%	39.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	20.7%	40.1%	33.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	7.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	28.4%	35.4%	18.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	12.5%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	7.0%	45.4%	25.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	15.9%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	3.2%	45.1%	21.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	10.0%	59.9%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	4.9%	61.2%	23.5%	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	61.5%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	16.9%	63.9%	23.0%	0.0%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	13.5%	59.0%	0.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	9.0%	61.5%	11.0%	12.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	17.5%	61.9%	10.8%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	20.8%	62.3%	10.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	20.9%	46.1%	7.7%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	16.5%	43.3%	5.7%	6.1%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	32.5%	48.6%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	45.7%	52.9%	8.9%	12.2%	19.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.1%	53.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	66.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	65.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗