KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

45%

30%

24%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.95u · ICON −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:09+00:00	60.3%	34.2%	51.1%	33.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	60.3%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	60.3%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	60.3%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	60.3%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	56.5%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	56.5%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	56.5%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	56.5%	34.2%	53.2%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	33.0%	4.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	48.8%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	56.5%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	4.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	54.6%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	7.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	54.6%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	7.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	54.6%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	7.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	54.6%	31.5%	52.4%	32.7%	7.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	54.6%	31.5%	52.4%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	54.6%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	54.6%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	54.6%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	56.5%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	56.5%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	56.5%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	56.5%	24.5%	45.3%	30.3%	7.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	66.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	65.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗