KMSP / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

30%

20%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

ICONNO 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.25u · ICON −74.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	56.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	70.8%	37.6%	3.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	67.0%	37.1%	13.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	16.0%	25.8%	15.1%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	26.1%	21.8%	25.5%	—	20.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	10.8%	25.1%	20.1%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	2.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	15.6%	20.8%	9.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	5.5%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	2.6%	28.2%	12.9%	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.0%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	27.1%	9.8%	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	3.8%	40.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	1.5%	40.8%	10.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	2.8%	40.6%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	6.6%	42.4%	9.9%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	4.8%	36.7%	0.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	2.7%	38.5%	3.5%	4.2%	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	6.2%	38.1%	3.3%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	7.5%	37.7%	2.8%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	7.2%	22.8%	1.9%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	5.0%	20.0%	1.2%	1.3%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	12.4%	23.2%	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	20.2%	25.6%	1.9%	2.9%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	14.4%	24.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	66.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	64.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗