KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

92%

72%

62%

60%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

ICONNO 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.90u · ICON −23.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	74.6%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	33.6%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	3.9%	61.3%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	60.4%	36.9%	8.2%	—	68.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	82.0%	54.4%	60.8%	—	58.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	71.7%	72.4%	50.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	36.7%	57.9%	36.7%	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	50.8%	50.8%	52.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	13.7%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	40.5%	70.1%	45.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	27.9%	63.2%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	28.2%	61.8%	55.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	35.2%	71.6%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	38.5%	73.7%	55.8%	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	39.1%	78.1%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	32.1%	77.3%	44.9%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	47.9%	77.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	53.3%	77.8%	47.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	54.5%	73.3%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	50.0%	74.0%	38.5%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	58.4%	71.7%	42.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	75.4%	75.4%	48.8%	43.8%	57.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	76.2%	68.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗