KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

86%

72%

71%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u

EPSNO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.60u · EPS −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	3.6%	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	25.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	67.6%	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	61.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	5.0%	34.2%	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	68.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	85.9%	50.0%	17.1%	49.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	38.5%	64.3%	13.2%	51.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	37.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	45.4%	94.6%	35.8%	57.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	93.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	64.1%	95.7%	57.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	82.7%	—	63.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	23.8%	92.9%	38.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	19.0%	93.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	80.4%	93.8%	49.1%	70.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	81.0%	88.8%	—	62.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	81.6%	97.1%	43.6%	75.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	85.7%	95.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	92.5%	96.0%	59.6%	81.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	94.8%	97.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	73.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	73.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	86%	77.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	70.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗