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KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
90%
AIFS
88%
ICON
86%
HRES
72%
EPS
71%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u
VS
EPSNO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.60u · EPS −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS HRES: 78.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 78.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 78.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00IFS HRES: 78.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:0095.8%64.2%83.6%78.0%30.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:0095.8%75.0%83.6%78.0%30.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:0095.8%75.0%83.6%78.0%30.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:0082.3%75.0%83.6%78.0%30.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0081.9%75.0%83.3%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:0081.9%75.0%83.3%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:0081.9%75.0%83.3%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:0081.9%75.0%82.8%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:0081.9%75.0%82.8%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:0081.9%75.0%82.8%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:0081.9%75.0%82.8%77.8%30.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:0093.7%75.0%82.8%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:0093.7%75.0%82.8%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0093.7%75.0%82.8%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:0093.7%75.0%82.8%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:0093.7%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0093.6%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:0093.6%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:0088.3%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0088.3%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:0088.3%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0088.3%71.3%90.3%72.3%85.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 290%73.1°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single88%73.3°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON86%77.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES72%70.3°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble71%68.8°F4.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗