KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

74%

66%

48%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.85u · EPS −28.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.8%	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	9.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	42.2%	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	35.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	1.0%	13.9%	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	64.4%	24.1%	4.9%	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	73.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	15.2%	35.7%	3.2%	24.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	14.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	18.9%	80.0%	12.9%	28.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	76.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	33.0%	82.1%	27.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	54.9%	—	31.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	6.1%	73.5%	12.9%	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	4.1%	74.0%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	49.1%	74.5%	18.4%	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	49.1%	62.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	49.1%	83.4%	13.9%	40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	54.7%	77.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	67.8%	78.2%	23.2%	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	73.5%	82.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	75.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	76.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	73.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	72.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗