KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

38%

34%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

EPSNO 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.95u · EPS −71.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	5.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	30.1%	—	5.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	0.4%	7.7%	—	11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	28.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	50.7%	14.5%	2.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	59.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	8.2%	23.2%	1.3%	14.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	7.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	10.3%	67.7%	6.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	63.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	20.1%	69.8%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	38.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	2.5%	58.3%	6.1%	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	1.5%	58.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	32.2%	58.7%	9.0%	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	31.8%	44.6%	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	31.4%	69.5%	6.1%	24.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	36.1%	61.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	49.0%	61.5%	11.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	55.0%	66.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	72.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	67.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗