KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

78%

74%

53%

35%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

ICONNO 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.80u · ICON −35.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	32.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	16.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	33.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	75.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	73.8%	—	39.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	46.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	1.4%	79.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	82.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	6.7%	38.2%	1.3%	52.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	68.3%	54.4%	60.8%	43.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	35.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	33.7%	74.9%	28.9%	42.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	87.3%	61.0%	54.8%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	91.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	77.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	68.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	64.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗