KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

78%

74%

53%

35%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

ICONNO 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.80u · ICON −35.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	95.2%	54.3%	89.9%	73.2%	19.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	95.2%	54.3%	89.9%	73.2%	19.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	95.2%	54.3%	89.9%	73.2%	19.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	89.5%	54.3%	89.9%	73.2%	19.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	89.5%	54.3%	89.8%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:44+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	89.8%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	89.8%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	89.8%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	80.5%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	80.5%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	89.5%	53.6%	80.5%	73.2%	20.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	87.8%	53.6%	80.5%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	87.8%	53.6%	80.5%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	87.8%	53.6%	80.5%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	87.8%	53.6%	80.5%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	87.8%	53.6%	80.5%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	87.8%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	87.8%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	87.8%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	93.3%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	93.3%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	93.3%	52.8%	78.3%	74.3%	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	77.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	68.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	64.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗