KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

69%

53%

41%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · EPS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	27.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	27.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	70.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	68.2%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	40.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	0.9%	74.0%	—	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	77.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	4.7%	31.7%	0.8%	45.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	75.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	61.6%	47.1%	53.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	28.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	27.0%	68.4%	22.8%	35.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	32.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	82.6%	53.2%	46.8%	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	88.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	74.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	82%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	72.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	70.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	68.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗