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KMSP / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
84%
HRES
69%
ICON
53%
EPS
41%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u
VS
EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · EPS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.4% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00ICON: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0010-17 07:4410-18 20:1310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:0093.3%48.4%65.0%67.9%17.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0093.3%48.4%65.0%67.9%17.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0093.3%48.4%65.0%67.9%17.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0093.3%48.4%65.0%67.9%17.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0093.3%48.4%65.0%67.9%17.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:0074.1%41.0%80.4%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:0074.1%41.0%80.4%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:0074.1%41.0%83.2%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:0074.1%41.0%83.2%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:0074.1%41.0%83.2%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:0074.1%41.0%83.2%49.4%77.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:0083.6%41.0%83.2%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:0083.6%41.0%83.2%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:0083.6%41.0%83.2%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:0083.6%41.0%83.2%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:0083.6%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:0083.6%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:0083.6%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:0084.1%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:0084.1%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:0084.1%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0084.1%41.0%86.3%69.1%52.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%74.6°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single84%74.9°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast82%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
IFS HRES69%72.8°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F6.7°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON53%70.0°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble41%68.5°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗