KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

59%

44%

38%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

AIFSNO 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.25u · AIFS −37.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	14.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	62.5%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	19.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	53.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	35.5%	3.1%	—	50.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	7.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	88.1%	14.1%	2.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	86.1%	33.7%	37.1%	52.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	35.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	73.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	67.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	64.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	61.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	60.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗