KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

59%

44%

38%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

AIFSNO 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.25u · AIFS −37.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	21.2%	81.2%	70.8%	62.2%	59.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	21.2%	81.2%	70.8%	62.2%	59.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	21.2%	81.2%	70.8%	62.2%	59.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	6.5%	81.2%	70.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	6.5%	81.2%	70.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	70.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	70.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	57.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	57.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	57.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	6.5%	81.5%	57.8%	62.2%	59.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	57.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	57.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	57.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	57.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	26.0%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	38.4%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	38.4%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	38.4%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	38.4%	81.5%	43.8%	59.2%	87.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	73.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	67.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	64.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	61.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	60.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗