KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

48%

44%

38%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 33.95u

AIFSNO 66.0¢Risks 66.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.05u · AIFS −66.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	4.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	38.6%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	6.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	28.9%	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	14.7%	0.5%	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	68.3%	3.8%	0.4%	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	63.6%	12.4%	14.4%	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	13.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	68.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	66.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	44%	65.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	57.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗