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KMSP / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
61%
WN2
48%
ICON
44%
HRES
38%
AIFS
7%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 33.95u
VS
AIFSNO 66.0¢Risks 66.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.05u · AIFS −66.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 11:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:006.7%61.2%47.8%37.8%44.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:006.7%61.2%47.8%37.8%44.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:006.7%61.2%47.8%37.8%44.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:006.7%61.2%47.8%37.8%44.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:006.7%61.2%47.8%37.8%44.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble61%68.2°F6.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend53%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%66.2°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON44%65.0°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%64.5°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%57.9°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗