KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

43%

41%

28%

19%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

HRESNO 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.60u · HRES −68.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	6.1%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	71.4%	32.3%	39.6%	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	68.3%	64.3%	53.6%	—	60.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	85.8%	70.4%	62.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	66.3%	82.6%	45.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	70.7%	76.8%	30.8%	—	29.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	55.1%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	45.6%	57.0%	29.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	49.1%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	23.0%	31.4%	28.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	29.2%	22.4%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	23.2%	42.3%	12.1%	—	7.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	26.5%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	21.9%	52.1%	23.5%	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	23.6%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	33.1%	20.6%	10.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	27.6%	21.4%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	25.1%	22.4%	12.1%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	23.4%	35.9%	16.7%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	29.8%	40.1%	15.1%	15.1%	5.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	22.8%	34.9%	12.8%	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	22.0%	40.7%	9.5%	18.2%	3.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	25.3%	28.8%	9.8%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	24.5%	26.8%	11.5%	23.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	27.2%	19.2%	9.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	22.6%	25.0%	14.2%	23.8%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	28.1%	16.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	44%	74.2°F	1.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1910
AIFS Single	43%	73.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1815
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1648
ICON	28%	72.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0790
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0515
IFS HRES	19%	70.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0365

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗