KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

43%

41%

28%

19%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

HRESNO 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.60u · HRES −68.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:03+00:00	34.6%	91.7%	74.5%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	34.6%	91.7%	74.5%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	34.6%	91.7%	74.5%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	34.6%	91.7%	74.5%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00	34.6%	91.7%	74.5%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	34.6%	80.8%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	34.6%	80.8%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	34.6%	80.8%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	64.0%	80.8%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	64.0%	80.8%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	56.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	60.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	60.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	64.0%	78.7%	60.4%	90.2%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	60.4%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	60.4%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	60.4%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	60.4%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	60.4%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	83.7%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	80.7%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	85.8%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	85.8%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	91.3%	78.7%	85.8%	77.1%	78.3%
2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	85.8%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	85.8%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	85.8%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	85.8%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	85.8%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	90.7%	78.7%	95.3%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	90.7%	87.9%	95.3%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	90.7%	87.9%	95.3%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	69.5%	87.9%	95.3%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	69.4%	87.5%	95.2%	82.0%	80.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00	40.6%	53.8%	34.3%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	40.6%	53.8%	34.3%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	40.6%	53.8%	42.5%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	40.6%	53.8%	42.5%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	40.6%	53.8%	42.5%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	42.5%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	42.5%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	42.5%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	42.5%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	42.5%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	37.2%	53.8%	40.6%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	37.2%	43.5%	40.6%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	37.2%	43.5%	40.6%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	42.6%	43.7%	40.6%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	42.6%	43.7%	40.6%	19.1%	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	44%	74.2°F	1.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1910
AIFS Single	43%	73.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1815
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1648
ICON	28%	72.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0790
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0515
IFS HRES	19%	70.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0365

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗