KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

35%

26%

23%

20%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

AIFSNO 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.10u · AIFS −66.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	37.6%	9.0%	12.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	33.0%	29.1%	20.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	54.6%	33.7%	26.4%	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	28.1%	47.6%	13.1%	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	30.8%	37.7%	6.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	17.3%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.3%	17.8%	5.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	12.5%	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.9%	5.0%	4.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.2%	2.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.5%	7.9%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.0%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.9%	10.8%	2.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	1.4%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	1.3%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	3.1%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	3.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	2.2%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.8%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2905
ICON	48%	79.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2304
National Blend	46%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2153
IFS Ensemble	35%	78.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1218
WeatherNext 2	26%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0655
IFS HRES	23%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0520
AIFS Single	20%	75.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0392

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗