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KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
48%
EPS
35%
WN2
26%
HRES
23%
AIFS
20%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 33.9¢Risks 33.90u
VS
AIFSNO 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.10u · AIFS −66.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.6% · 2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:0010-13 04:1510-13 09:3410-13 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T04:15:50+00:0029.2%54.4%52.6%31.8%72.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:0029.2%54.4%50.0%31.8%72.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:0029.2%54.4%50.0%31.8%72.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:0029.2%54.4%50.0%31.8%72.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:0029.2%54.4%50.0%31.8%72.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:0027.1%54.4%50.0%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0027.1%54.4%50.0%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0027.1%54.4%50.0%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0027.1%54.4%50.0%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:0027.1%32.8%25.4%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:0027.1%32.8%25.4%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:0027.1%32.8%25.4%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:0027.1%32.8%25.4%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:0019.8%32.8%25.6%22.8%48.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:0019.8%34.9%25.6%22.8%48.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%80.0°F5.1°F2026-10-13 03:000.2905
ICON48%79.2°F5.9°F2026-10-13 00:000.2304
National Blend46%79.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 06:000.2153
IFS Ensemble35%78.1°F3.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.1218
WeatherNext 226%76.8°F4.1°F2026-10-13 00:000.0655
IFS HRES23%75.2°F5.8°F2026-10-13 00:000.0520
AIFS Single20%75.3°F5.0°F2026-10-13 06:000.0392

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗