KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 13:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 5.8¢Risks 1.44u

EPSNO 94.2¢Risks 23.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.56u · EPS −23.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.0%	0.5%	0.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.2%	3.3%	1.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.0%	3.9%	2.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	7.2%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.5%	3.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	11%	79.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0114
NWS forecast	10%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0106
National Blend	9%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0077
IFS HRES	2%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	2%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗