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KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 13:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
11%
HRES
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.8¢Risks 1.44u
VS
EPSNO 94.2¢Risks 23.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.56u · EPS −23.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00ICON: 33.1% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:0010-11 07:3210-12 10:5010-13 13:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:000.5%23.6%5.4%27.4%—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:000.5%23.6%5.4%27.4%—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:000.5%23.6%5.4%27.4%—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:000.5%23.6%5.4%27.4%—
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:000.5%23.6%5.4%27.4%—
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:000.5%8.8%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:000.5%8.8%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:000.5%8.8%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:003.6%8.8%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:003.7%8.8%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T15:11:36+00:003.7%7.7%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:003.7%7.7%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:003.7%7.7%1.2%27.4%—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:003.7%7.7%1.5%27.4%—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:003.7%7.7%1.5%27.4%—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:003.7%7.7%1.5%27.4%—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:0012.2%7.7%1.5%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:0012.2%7.7%1.5%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:0012.2%7.7%1.5%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:0012.2%7.7%1.5%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:0012.2%7.7%1.5%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:0012.2%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:0012.2%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:0012.2%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:0021.6%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:0021.6%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:0021.6%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:0021.6%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:0021.6%7.7%6.0%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:0021.6%7.7%8.8%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:0021.6%7.7%8.8%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:0021.6%7.7%8.8%12.5%33.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:0017.3%7.7%8.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:0017.3%7.7%8.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0017.3%7.7%8.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:0017.3%7.7%8.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0017.3%7.7%8.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:0017.3%7.7%16.7%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:0017.3%7.0%16.7%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:0017.3%7.0%16.7%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:004.0%7.0%16.7%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:004.0%7.3%16.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:004.0%7.3%16.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:004.0%7.5%16.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:004.0%7.5%6.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:004.0%7.5%6.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:004.0%7.5%6.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:004.0%7.5%6.8%18.0%20.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:005.1%7.5%6.8%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:005.1%7.5%6.8%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:005.1%7.5%6.8%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:005.1%7.5%6.8%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:005.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:005.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:005.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:005.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:003.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:003.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:003.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:003.1%7.5%7.1%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:003.1%7.5%6.3%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:003.1%7.5%6.3%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:003.1%7.5%6.3%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:003.1%7.5%6.3%6.2%34.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:002.1%7.5%6.3%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:002.1%7.5%6.3%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:002.1%7.5%6.3%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:002.1%7.5%6.3%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:002.1%0.8%0.9%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:002.1%0.8%0.9%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:002.1%0.8%0.9%2.5%10.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:002.1%0.8%0.9%2.5%10.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON11%79.2°F5.9°F2026-10-13 00:000.0114
NWS forecast10%80.0°F5.1°F2026-10-13 03:000.0106
National Blend9%79.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 06:000.0077
IFS HRES2%75.2°F5.8°F2026-10-13 00:000.0006
AIFS Single2%76.5°F4.9°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
WeatherNext 2<1%76.8°F4.1°F2026-10-13 00:000.0001
IFS Ensemble<1%77.9°F3.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗