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KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
10%
HRES
8%
WN2
5%
EPS
2%
AIFS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.6¢Risks 1.40u
VS
AIFSNO 94.4¢Risks 23.60u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.60u · AIFS −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:006.6%————0.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:001.3%————2.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:001.5%————5.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:003.6%————3.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:009.3%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:001.1%————2.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.1%————2.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:006.9%————3.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0027.4%————3.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0026.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0021.6%————1.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——1.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.8%1.9%0.1%0.2%—0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.9%—0.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:001.4%1.1%0.9%0.4%—0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%3.6%1.0%0.5%—0.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.1%—2.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%2.0%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%—2.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%0.8%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON10%80.6°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0104
IFS HRES8%80.5°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0072
WeatherNext 25%82.1°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0028
National Blend2%76.0°F6.7°F2026-10-12 06:000.0004
IFS Ensemble2%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-12 00:000.0003
NWS forecast2%77.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 14:000.0003
AIFS Single1%77.2°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in New Orleans · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗