KMSY / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 5.6¢Risks 1.40u

AIFSNO 94.4¢Risks 23.60u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.60u · AIFS −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:04+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	1.5%	14.2%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	1.5%	14.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	1.5%	14.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	1.5%	14.2%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	1.5%	14.2%	—
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:21+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	1.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	2.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	2.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	2.5%	5.2%	23.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	2.5%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	2.5%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	2.5%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	2.5%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	2.5%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	6.6%	2.4%	5.2%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	5.2%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	6.6%	1.6%	5.2%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00	1.0%	1.7%	5.3%	8.5%	10.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	1.0%	1.8%	5.3%	8.5%	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	10%	80.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0104
IFS HRES	8%	80.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0072
WeatherNext 2	5%	82.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0028
National Blend	2%	76.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	1%	77.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in New Orleans · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗