KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

59%

54%

38%

29%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.95u · HRES −55.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	36.7%	86.1%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	83.4%	83.4%	36.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	84.4%	76.8%	66.3%	—	66.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	92.2%	85.4%	60.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	82.1%	85.5%	41.3%	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	40.9%	84.8%	50.8%	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	31.9%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	39.6%	61.3%	40.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	56.3%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	49.1%	65.3%	51.8%	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	42.5%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	60.6%	28.7%	48.0%	—	14.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	56.0%	40.1%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	40.8%	33.0%	42.8%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	44.7%	48.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	52.2%	42.4%	36.1%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	40.0%	51.1%	0.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	45.4%	61.5%	37.4%	14.7%	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	59.5%	54.8%	39.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	51.2%	57.4%	37.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	50.0%	60.2%	39.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	52.7%	55.4%	36.8%	17.3%	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	58.3%	43.1%	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	52.9%	48.5%	29.3%	34.5%	18.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	41.0%	56.0%	21.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	39.1%	62.4%	21.4%	26.3%	14.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	45.1%	48.4%	37.0%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1640
IFS Ensemble	59%	75.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1673
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	54%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2116
ICON	38%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3869
IFS HRES	29%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5098

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗