KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

59%

54%

38%

29%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.95u · HRES −55.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	65.0%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	65.0%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	65.0%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	61.9%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	67.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	73.3%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	73.3%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	63.7%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	67.2%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	71.4%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	71.4%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	68.0%	55.9%	71.4%	26.6%	48.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	69.7%	55.9%	71.4%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	69.7%	55.9%	71.4%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	69.7%	55.9%	71.4%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	69.7%	55.9%	71.4%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	69.7%	55.9%	71.4%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	69.7%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	69.7%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	69.7%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	63.9%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	66.2%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	52.6%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	62.6%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	47.4%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	55.1%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	55.1%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	55.1%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	56.8%	76.6%	55.1%	27.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	59.0%	76.6%	55.1%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	59.0%	76.6%	55.1%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	59.0%	76.6%	55.1%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	59.0%	76.6%	55.1%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	59.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	59.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	59.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	59.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	53.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	53.0%	79.3%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00	53.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	53.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	53.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	53.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	53.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	41.8%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	48.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	37.9%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	59.5%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	59.5%	28.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	54.0%	59.1%	59.5%	28.6%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1640
IFS Ensemble	59%	75.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1673
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	54%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2116
ICON	38%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3869
IFS HRES	29%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5098

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗