KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

28%

19%

15%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

HRESNO 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +79.75u · HRES −79.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	11.8%	59.4%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	53.5%	53.5%	11.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	53.6%	42.7%	31.0%	—	31.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	67.7%	53.8%	24.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	46.8%	52.4%	11.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	10.1%	49.2%	15.2%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	6.1%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	8.6%	20.8%	9.0%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	16.6%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.9%	22.3%	13.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	8.4%	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	17.1%	3.8%	10.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	13.5%	6.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	6.4%	4.2%	7.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	7.2%	8.8%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.4%	5.9%	4.2%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.8%	8.3%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.7%	12.1%	3.8%	0.6%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.2%	8.2%	3.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.3%	8.5%	3.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.3%	8.7%	3.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	6.1%	2.2%	0.4%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.2%	2.7%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.0%	3.2%	0.9%	1.3%	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	4.8%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	35%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1232
ICON	28%	76.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0773
WeatherNext 2	19%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0365
IFS Ensemble	15%	76.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0225
IFS HRES	5%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0029

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗