KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

49%

33%

28%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.1¢Risks 47.15u

HRESNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.85u · HRES −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	10.4%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	6.4%	46.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	39.6%	39.6%	5.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	39.2%	29.1%	19.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	53.0%	38.7%	14.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	31.6%	36.7%	5.3%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.5%	33.0%	7.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.4%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.6%	10.5%	3.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	7.8%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.0%	11.0%	5.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.2%	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.5%	1.2%	4.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.4%	2.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.1%	1.2%	2.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.3%	3.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.1%	1.7%	1.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	2.6%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	4.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	2.3%	0.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	2.3%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	2.2%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	85.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.5112
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
WeatherNext 2	49%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2411
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	33%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1096
AIFS Single	28%	78.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0778
IFS HRES	23%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗