KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

49%

33%

28%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.1¢Risks 47.15u

HRESNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.85u · HRES −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:51+00:00	53.5%	49.1%	61.9%	52.5%	61.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	53.5%	49.1%	61.9%	52.5%	61.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	53.5%	49.1%	61.9%	52.5%	61.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	53.5%	49.1%	61.9%	52.5%	61.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	53.5%	49.1%	61.9%	52.5%	61.9%
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00	44.8%	49.1%	61.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	44.8%	49.1%	61.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	44.8%	49.1%	61.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	44.8%	49.1%	61.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	44.8%	31.6%	43.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	44.8%	31.6%	43.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	44.8%	31.6%	43.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	44.8%	31.6%	43.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	33.2%	31.6%	43.9%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	43.9%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	43.9%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	43.9%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	33.2%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	61.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	71.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	71.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	71.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	35.5%	34.6%	71.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	35.5%	22.8%	71.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	49.1%	22.8%	71.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	49.1%	22.8%	71.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	45.5%	33.1%	49.1%	22.8%	71.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	27.9%	33.1%	49.1%	22.8%	71.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	27.9%	33.1%	49.1%	22.8%	71.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	85.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.5112
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
WeatherNext 2	49%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2411
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	33%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1096
AIFS Single	28%	78.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0778
IFS HRES	23%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗