KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.10u

EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 44.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.90u · EPS −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.2%	7.2%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.7%	4.7%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.1%	2.2%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	2.6%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	20%	83.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0404
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0098
IFS HRES	5%	78.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0028
WeatherNext 2	3%	80.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0008
National Blend	3%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	3%	79.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0007
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in New Orleans · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗