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KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
20%
HRES
5%
WN2
3%
AIFS
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.10u
VS
EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 44.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.90u · EPS −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 23:4410-13 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:17+00:008.1%1.3%7.6%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:008.1%1.3%7.6%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:008.1%1.3%7.6%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:008.1%1.3%7.6%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:008.1%1.3%7.6%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:008.1%1.3%11.7%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:008.1%2.5%11.7%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:008.1%2.5%11.7%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:006.9%2.5%11.7%23.9%10.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:007.0%2.5%11.8%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:007.0%2.5%11.8%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:007.0%3.0%11.8%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:007.0%3.0%6.3%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:007.0%3.0%6.3%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:007.0%3.0%6.3%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:007.0%3.0%6.3%23.9%10.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:008.0%3.0%6.3%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:008.0%3.0%6.3%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:008.0%3.0%6.3%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:008.0%3.0%6.3%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:008.0%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:008.0%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:008.0%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:008.0%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:009.1%3.0%9.5%11.5%30.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:24+00:005.1%3.0%9.5%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:005.1%3.0%9.5%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:005.1%3.0%9.5%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:005.1%3.0%9.5%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:005.1%0.3%2.8%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:005.1%0.3%2.8%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:005.1%0.3%2.8%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:005.1%0.3%2.8%5.3%19.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:002.6%0.3%2.9%5.3%20.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:002.6%0.3%2.9%5.3%20.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON20%83.6°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0404
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0098
IFS HRES5%78.9°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0028
WeatherNext 23%80.8°F4.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0008
National Blend3%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 06:000.0008
AIFS Single3%79.2°F5.3°F2026-10-13 06:000.0007
IFS Ensemble<1%80.0°F3.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in New Orleans · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗