KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

19%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

EPSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.65u · EPS −75.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	99.7%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	43.3%	5.6%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	6.7%	42.3%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	5.9%	10.0%	16.5%	—	16.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	2.3%	5.2%	20.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	6.4%	4.9%	35.2%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	34.5%	4.9%	25.8%	—	55.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	43.2%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	34.6%	17.2%	33.8%	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	20.2%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	25.1%	13.9%	23.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	30.1%	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	43.2%	24.7%	—	63.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	18.3%	30.8%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	29.4%	36.9%	27.6%	—	51.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	25.3%	22.0%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	19.0%	26.4%	32.1%	99.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	27.6%	19.0%	95.5%	—	53.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	22.4%	12.1%	28.9%	57.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	12.6%	15.2%	26.3%	—	51.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	16.6%	13.0%	26.6%	—	46.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	10.9%	23.8%	—	51.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	14.1%	12.7%	25.1%	47.3%	47.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	10.4%	19.1%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	12.2%	14.6%	29.3%	24.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	18.1%	9.9%	36.6%	—	59.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	18.1%	6.6%	34.6%	29.0%	45.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	13.2%	11.5%	18.1%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	40%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1632
ICON	30%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0876
AIFS Single	19%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0376
WeatherNext 2	10%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	8%	75.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0069
National Blend	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗