KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

19%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

EPSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.65u · EPS −75.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	8.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	8.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	8.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	8.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	8.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	19.8%	2.7%	7.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	19.8%	1.6%	7.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	19.8%	1.6%	7.7%	46.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	7.2%	1.6%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	7.2%	1.6%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:08+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	4.3%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	4.3%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	4.3%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	4.3%	46.8%	23.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	4.3%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	4.3%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	4.3%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	4.3%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.1%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	17.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	13.6%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	13.6%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	13.6%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	13.6%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	13.6%	2.0%	8.9%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	13.6%	5.2%	10.1%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	13.6%	5.2%	10.1%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	13.6%	5.2%	10.1%	49.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	10.1%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	10.1%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	10.1%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	10.1%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	10.1%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	15.8%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	24.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	6.5%	53.6%	24.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	6.5%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	14.7%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	9.1%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	7.3%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	7.3%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	7.3%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	10.5%	5.2%	7.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	10.5%	5.2%	7.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	10.5%	5.2%	7.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	10.5%	5.2%	7.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	10.5%	5.2%	7.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	10.5%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	10.5%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	10.5%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	9.3%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	12.4%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	20.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	15.1%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	14.5%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	18.3%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	13.6%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	13.6%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	13.6%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	18.1%	1.8%	13.6%	44.2%	25.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	16.1%	1.8%	13.6%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	16.1%	1.8%	13.6%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	16.1%	1.8%	13.6%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	16.1%	1.8%	13.6%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	16.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00	20.1%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	20.1%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	20.1%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	20.1%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	20.1%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	30.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	20.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	23.9%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	23.5%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	10.2%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	10.2%	40.4%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	19.4%	8.3%	10.2%	40.4%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	40%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1632
ICON	30%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0876
AIFS Single	19%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0376
WeatherNext 2	10%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	8%	75.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0069
National Blend	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗