KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

63%

56%

53%

52%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 30.43u

HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 19.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.57u · HRES −19.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	72.2%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	40.6%	48.0%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	77.0%	79.6%	23.0%	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.0%	85.6%	41.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	60.6%	82.1%	57.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	54.0%	71.9%	46.0%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	72.1%	72.8%	59.1%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	45.7%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	75.9%	37.9%	57.0%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	56.3%	47.3%	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	62.7%	47.2%	65.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	63.0%	43.4%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	59.6%	45.1%	51.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	52.0%	45.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	55.1%	49.0%	54.1%	0.1%	28.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	58.4%	48.9%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	47.8%	50.0%	44.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	55.6%	46.6%	0.6%	—	31.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	57.0%	54.6%	44.2%	0.0%	31.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	68.5%	50.0%	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	62.3%	59.9%	58.7%	27.6%	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	56.4%	46.1%	59.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	51.3%	48.7%	61.9%	27.3%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	52.8%	50.0%	61.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	55.8%	58.6%	51.4%	33.1%	29.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	68.9%	41.0%	—	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	77.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗