KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

63%

56%

53%

52%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 30.43u

HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 19.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.57u · HRES −19.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	49.1%	83.8%	57.1%	47.3%	61.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	49.1%	83.8%	55.9%	47.3%	61.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	49.1%	83.8%	55.9%	47.3%	61.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	49.1%	83.8%	55.9%	47.3%	61.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	49.1%	83.8%	55.9%	47.3%	61.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	52.9%	83.8%	55.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	52.9%	83.8%	55.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	52.9%	83.8%	55.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	52.9%	83.8%	55.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	52.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	52.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	52.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	52.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	55.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	55.9%	87.3%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	51.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	56.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	56.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	56.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	56.4%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	56.4%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	56.4%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	56.4%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	56.4%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	54.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	55.9%	69.8%	62.6%	51.9%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	77.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗